America lowers rates

Mortgage rates in the US since the beginning of the year are down - contrary to the predictions of experts. Even with the continuation of the trend of strong growth in prices on the US housing is not going to happen, experts say.

According to the latest weekly report, the mortgage agency Freddie Mac, now the average rate on mortgages in the United States for 30 years is 4.23%, for 15 years - 3.33%. The downward trend in mortgage rates was clearly manifested from the beginning of the year: mortgage rates closer to the level of November 2013, when they accounted for 4.29%.

For comparison, at the beginning of this year, rates on loans for 30 years were 4.53 and 3.35% for 15 years. Active growth mortgage rates began in May - while the average mortgage rate for 30 years amounted to 3.35%, just like in the beginning of the year (3.34% in January).

Rising mortgage rates began after the Fed announced the possibility of folding programs to stimulate the mortgage market, a policy known as quantitative easing QE3.

According to analysts portal themortgagereports.com, the first reason for lower rates is that the US economy shows a slowdown. In addition, labor market indicators and consumer sector were worse than predicted by experts. For example, late last year, the unemployment rate remained at a high level - 6.7%, while the return to full employment could take two years.

In theory, the reduction of QE3 quantitative easing program should lead to an increase in mortgage interest rates. However, now there is the reverse situation: the program began to decline, and rates began to decline. The most likely reason for this situation, experts believe investor interest in US bonds. International investors buying US bonds at a faster pace than the Fed can release them to the market, analysts say portal themortgagereports.com.

At the same time, experts stress, this situation is not new.

A similar situation occurred when QE ended in 2009 when QE2 ended two years later. At the same time during the action programs mortgage rates are at record low levels - around 3%.

The possibility of continuing downward trend in interest rates will not lead to an increase in housing prices. "Prices" will not grow as they grow up in the spring of last year, "- said Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia Inc. (TRLA), an online service for the acquisition of real estate. The pace of price growth could slow. According to various estimates, the average growth in house prices was about 13% in 2013. In the third quarter of 2013, according to Freddie Mac, the rise in prices on an annualized basis was 8.48% in the previous quarter - 7.57%. According to the company Freddie Mac, in 2014. The housing market recovery is continuing at a steady pace. The increase in prices is projected at 5%.

The pace of sales will vary depending on the market - on the individual local markets, they can remain at a low level.

Although in general, even raising mortgage rates did not have a negative impact on the number of sales transactions. The number of homes sold in the secondary market reached the level of 2006. According to experts, it shows that the real estate market began to adjust to the increasing rates. The number of transactions at the end of the year increased in November was concluded 444 thousand. Transactions for the purchase of new housing, whereas the previous month - 354 thousand.